A Final Walkthrough Checklist for Your Prediction-Market Order
Check resolution wording, executable prices, spreads, fees and maximum loss before submitting a prediction-market order—with one worked example.
Use this final walkthrough checklist with the market rules and order ticket open, just before submitting a prediction-market order. The goal is to check that you are buying the outcome you actually forecast, at a cost you understand—not to find a reason to trade.
This checklist covers a simple, fully paid Yes/No contract that pays $1 if your side wins and $0 if it loses, not leveraged products or combinations. Check for any special payout provisions before using the calculation below: some Kalshi markets can settle at a value other than $1 or $0. Source: Kalshi market FAQs.
For the earlier research stage, see reading a prediction market before you trade.
1. Confirm what makes your side win
- [ ] Match the market identifier, outcome, date and Yes or No selection to your intended position.
- [ ] Read the full resolution rules, not just the headline.
- [ ] Identify the threshold, deadline, time zone and named settlement source.
- [ ] Check how ties, postponements, missing data or revisions are treated, where applicable.
Write one sentence: “My side pays if this exact condition is met, according to this source.” If you cannot write it confidently, pause.
Kalshi’s guidance distinguishes trading close time from determination time and says to check the rules for the official source and determination criteria. An event appearing to be over does not necessarily mean settlement is ready. Source: Kalshi market FAQs.
2. Check the executable price and quantity
- [ ] Look at the price currently available for your selected side, rather than relying on a chart or last-traded price.
- [ ] Check how many contracts are offered at that price.
- [ ] Review the average execution price if your quantity would consume several price levels.
- [ ] Note the best bid as well as the best ask.
The best bid is the highest resting buy price; the best ask is the lowest resting sell price. Their difference is the spread. A market order can consume several levels, changing its average execution price. Source: Kalshi trading glossary.
For a closer look at quantities available at each price, use the market-depth guide.
3. Recalculate the cost after fees
Here is one hypothetical example—not a live quote or forecast:
| Item | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Resolution wording | Yes if the named official report shows an index strictly above 100 by the stated deadline |
| Your estimated Yes probability | 61% |
| Yes bid / ask | 56¢ / 60¢ |
| Purchase | 10 Yes contracts, all filled at 60¢ |
| Entry fee | 20¢ total, assumed for illustration |
| Settlement | $1 per winning contract; $0 per losing contract; no additional settlement charge assumed |
A reported value of exactly 100 would not satisfy “strictly above 100.” Your probability estimate must concern that precise condition.
The purchase arithmetic is:
- Contract cost: 10 × $0.60 = $6.00.
- Total paid: $6.00 + $0.20 = $6.20.
- Net result if Yes wins: $10.00 − $6.20 = +$3.80.
- Net result if Yes loses: $0 − $6.20 = −$6.20.
- Break-even probability: $6.20 ÷ $10.00 = 62%.
At your assumed 61% probability, expected net value is:
0.61 × $10.00 − $6.20 = −$0.10.
The 60¢ ask initially looks cheaper than your 61% estimate. The fee reverses that comparison. This calculation also assumes your estimate is sound; arithmetic cannot validate the forecast.
- [ ] Replace the illustrative fee with the applicable fee for your order. Kalshi lists standard and non-standard fees, including markets with maker fees; do not assume every limit order is fee-free. Source: Kalshi fee schedule, checked October 19, 2026.
4. Check loss and exit assumptions
- [ ] Confirm you can afford the full loss without needing this money for essentials.
- [ ] Consider how long the money could remain committed.
- [ ] Do not treat an early sale as guaranteed.
In the example, buying at 60¢ and immediately selling all 10 contracts at the unchanged 56¢ bid would return $5.60: a 60¢ loss including the entry fee, before any exit fee. That assumes enough buyers remain available at 56¢.
5. Read the ticket one last time
- [ ] Correct market, side, quantity and order type.
- [ ] Price limit and estimated total cost match your calculations.
- [ ] Existing holdings and open orders will not unintentionally increase your exposure.
A buy limit order sets the maximum contract price you will pay, but it may remain unfilled or fill only partly. Source: Kalshi limit-order guidance.
If you submit the order, check afterward whether it filled, partially filled or remains open. Do not assume submission means you bought the full quantity.
If the rules, total cost or loss limit still do not make sense, leave the order unsubmitted. This is a review checklist, not a recommendation to trade.