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Everything we've published so far.

32 articles, newest first.

2026

Feature Final Walkthrough Checklist Before a Prediction-Market Trade Check resolution wording, executable prices, spreads, fees and maximum loss before submitting a prediction-market order—with one worked example. Feature “It May Be That”: Meaning Before a Prediction-Market Decision Learn what “it may be that” means, then turn a vague possibility into an exact event and compare its probability with prices, spreads and fees. Feature How to Improve Forecast Accuracy in Prediction Markets Improve probability estimates with a forecast log, evidence-based updates and Brier scores. Compare fairly, then check spreads and fees separately. Feature Probability Basics for Prediction-Market Beginners Learn probability basics with one worked prediction-market example: define the event, estimate its chance, then account for the spread and fees. Feature Probability of A or B: Formula and Market Example Calculate P(A or B), distinguish independent from mutually exclusive events, and compare a worked probability estimate with market rules, spreads and fees. Feature Probability Rules for Prediction-Market Beginners Learn the core probability rules with one prediction-market example, then check resolution wording, dependence, the spread and fees. Feature Probability and Conditional Probability in Prediction Markets Learn probability and conditional probability with one worked market example, then compare your estimate with resolution rules, the spread and fees. Feature How to Play What Are the Odds: Rules and Probability Learn the dare game's basic rules, what “1 in 10” actually means, and why that probability is not automatically a fair prediction-market price. Feature Market Making Strategies in Prediction Markets Understand prediction-market market making with a worked spread example, three quoting strategies, and the risks of fees and one-sided fills. Feature Market Depth: Read a Prediction-Market Order Book Read prediction-market bids and asks, calculate average fill prices, and see why a tight spread can still mean costly entry and exit for your order size. Feature What Is Forecasting? A Prediction-Market Beginner’s Guide Learn what forecasting means, how to build a probability estimate, and why a likely outcome can still be a poor purchase after spreads and fees. Feature What Are the Odds? Meaning, Probability, and Market Prices Decode the phrase “what are the odds,” convert probability to odds, and see why a prediction market’s displayed price can differ from your break-even cost. Feature World Prediction Market CASH Settlement: How Payouts Work Learn how World settles prediction markets in CASH, when payouts arrive, when to use Redeem, and how prices and fees affect your result. Feature Prediction-Market Influencer Profits: How to Check the Claim Spot fake or misleading prediction-market profit claims by checking trade records, realized gains, spreads, fees and influencer disclosures. Feature What Happens to a Kalshi Position If Your State Bans Trading? See how a state restriction can affect existing Kalshi contracts, sell orders, settlement and withdrawals, with Nevada’s example and an exit calculator. Feature Polymarket’s New York Lawsuit: What to Check With Open Positions The New York lawsuit is not an automatic refund or cancellation notice. Check your platform, open orders, settlement rules and withdrawal availability. Feature Polymarket TWAP Settlement Change: The 60-Second Rule Five-minute crypto markets moved from a 30-second to a 60-second TWAP. Compare the settlement reference, tie rule and trading costs before buying shares. Feature Are the Polymarket “KPMG Wallets” Worth Copying? A striking win rate does not make a wallet worth copying. Check the KPMG-related evidence, your entry price, fees and resolution rules first. Feature Polymarket Midterm Election Trading Restrictions Explained Check Polymarket’s US and international access rules, confidential-information limits, outcome-influence bans, and election settlement terms before trading. Feature Kalshi Mention Markets: Manipulation Risk Before You Trade Understand the CFTC’s mention-market warning, check Kalshi resolution wording, and calculate how spreads and fees change a small trade. Feature Kalshi Take-Profit and Stop-Loss Orders Explained Kalshi Auto Sell is a limit sale, not a below-entry stop-loss. Compare event-market exits with perpetuals TP/SL, including fees, partial fills and risks. Feature Kalshi Clinical Trial Market Resolution: Read the Rules First Learn who decides Kalshi clinical trial outcomes, which documents count, and how deadlines, spreads and fees affect a beginner’s trade. Feature Kalshi Gold Perps vs Event Contracts: Payouts and Risk See how gold perpetuals and Yes/No contracts differ on payouts, fees, funding and liquidation, with worked examples and a tool to match your trading goal. Feature Kalshi Biotech Employment Verification Explained See how Kalshi’s biotech employment screen fits with trading restrictions, resolution rules, and the checks to complete before placing an order in pilot markets. Feature What Does “Highly Favored” Mean? What “highly favored” means in prediction markets, how to read the price, and why spread, fees and resolution rules still matter. Feature What Does Volume Mean on Kalshi? Kalshi volume counts contracts already traded, not liquidity available now. See how volume, dollar notional, and open interest differ. Feature A Two-Handed Backhand Is a Clue, Not a Pickleball Match Prediction A practical method for turning a player's two-handed backhand habit into a cautious probability estimate for a pickleball match market. Feature Can Kalshi Take Back Winnings After Settlement? Yes A reported case saw balances adjusted within minutes after an erroneous settlement; whether Kalshi can recover completed withdrawals remains unclear. Feature How to Use Kalshi: 7 Steps From Signup to Settlement Check eligibility, verify your account, read each contract’s rules, choose Yes or No, review costs and fees, then sell early or hold for settlement. Feature How to Cash Out on Kalshi, Step by Step First make funds available by selling contracts or waiting for settlement, then use Transfers to choose an eligible bank account or debit card. Feature Yes, You Can Do Parlays on Kalshi With Combos Combine eligible event positions in one trade, then request a live quote; prices can move, orders may not fill, and settlement is capped at $1. Feature Reading a Prediction Market Before You Trade The pre-trade checklist for prediction markets: what price, volume, spread, and — above all — the resolution criteria tell you before you risk a dollar.