“It May Be That” Signals Possibility, Not a Trading Probability

“It may be that” means “it is possible that.” It introduces a possibility without asserting that it is true: “It may be that the company launches its product this year.”

The phrase does not specify a probability. It does not automatically mean 50%, “more likely than not,” or any other numerical estimate. Cambridge explains that may, might and could express possibility, and that speakers disagree about their relative certainty. Treat the wording as an uncertainty signal, not a probability scale. Cambridge’s grammar guide

In a prediction market, that distinction matters: something can be possible—or even likely—without being worth buying at the available price.

Turn the possibility into an exact event

Consider this hypothetical statement:

It may be that Company A launches its product by the end of the year.

Before estimating its chance, define what “launches” means. An announcement, a limited beta and public availability are different events. A deadline also needs a date and time zone, and the market needs a source that determines whether the condition was met.

For this example, assume the fictional contract requires public availability by December 31 at 11:59 p.m. UTC, verified by the company’s official release page. An announcement alone does not count.

Those are invented teaching assumptions, not a live market’s rules. In an actual Kalshi market, the rules describe the conditions for a Yes outcome and identify the verification source. Read those terms rather than relying on the title. Kalshi’s market-rules guide

Now the useful question is not “Could a launch happen?” It is “How likely is this exact condition to be satisfied?” For a method of building that estimate, see what forecasting means.

Compare your estimate with the executable price

Suppose, purely for illustration, your evidence-based estimate is 60%. You are considering ten Yes contracts that each pay $1 if the condition is met and $0 otherwise, held through normal binary settlement.

Assume these quotes and costs:

Item	Assumption
Best Yes bid	$0.58
Best Yes ask	$0.62
Quantity available at the ask	At least 10 contracts
Total purchase fee	$0.20
Additional settlement costs	None

The best bid is the highest resting buy price; the best ask is the lowest resting sell price. Their difference is the spread—here, four cents. Buying immediately at the ask costs $0.62 per contract, not the $0.60 midpoint. These definitions and the $1/$0 binary payout structure are described in Kalshi’s trading glossary.

The arithmetic is:

• Purchase cost: 10 × $0.62 + $0.20 = $6.40.
• Profit if Yes: $10 − $6.40 = $3.60.
• Loss if No: $6.40.
• Expected net result at your 60% estimate: 0.60 × $3.60 − 0.40 × $6.40 = −$0.40.

The break-even probability is $6.40 ÷ $10 = 64%. Your estimated outcome is more likely than not, but the purchase has a negative expected result under these assumptions. Expected value is a probability-weighted calculation, not a promise about one trade.

The fee is illustrative, not a current platform quote. Check the actual order costs: Kalshi’s fee guide, dated April 19, 2026, notes that some markets have different fees and some resting orders incur maker fees when executed. Kalshi’s fee guide

Keep uncertainty visible

A useful forecast note replaces the vague phrase with something checkable:

I estimate a 60% chance of public availability before the stated deadline. An announcement alone would not qualify. The assumed purchase cost requires 64% to break even, so my estimate does not justify this purchase.

If you cannot support a numerical estimate or interpret the resolution wording, leave the possibility unpriced. “It may be that” is a starting point for investigation—not a reason to risk money.